Is it possible GM can keep Opel?

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For one reason or the other GM has managed to delay the sale of Opel. Now meetings are going on to decide between RHJ Holdings and Magna International. Enter politics - German Chancellor Angela Merkel who is up for re-election has made it plain that her government favors Magna’s bid, which includes a major investment by Russian state-operated Sberbank. She wants that the new alliance not close any factories in her country. But if Magna wins, there is the distinct likelihood that GM would lose patent rights to Russian automaker GAZ.

That is a major reason why GM would want to deal with RHJ Holdings to go through, even though the official stance is that GM has no particular preference. On the other hand it is entirely possible that GM does not really want to sell Opel, because losing it would cut into its global presence.

In order to get loans from the US and Canadian governments, GM had to cut four North American divisions, get rid of more than a third of its dealerships, close many of its factories and lay off thousands of blue- and white-collar employees. In the case of Germany, however, it will have to agree not to cut any IG Metall jobs to get about $2.1 billion in loans!

If GM’s results for this month are better than expected, then perhaps it will be able to keep Opel.